ITC Cliff

The potential loss of solar capacity is about equal to the total amount currently installed

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What will happen if the federal investment tax credit (ITC) so many solar developers depend on isn’t extended?

“If the investment tax credit is not extended, we see it as a disruption, not a death for the industry,” said Maddy Yozwiak, U.S. Power and RECs analyst  and co-author of the recently-released report, “How extending the investment tax credit would affect US solar build,” from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

“It will be a disruption that will take years to recover from, but the recovery is there. Long-term costs continue to improve,” Yozwiak added. “That doesn’t go away, even without the ITC.”

For now, the ITC is a 30% tax credit, but that is slated to change at the end of 2016, when it would drop to 10% for business investments in solar, and nothing for residential solar projects.

With that policy change, BNEF calculated that  the US can expect about 73 GW of solar PV to come online by year-end 2022. Build rates will fall from “an average of 8 GW per year from 2014-16 to 6 GW per year from 2017-22.”

The solar industry is lobbying hard for a five-year extension of the 30% business and personal ITC. If congress puts it in place by mid-2016, that would boost average build rates to about 10 GW per year from 2017-2022, the analysis concluded, amounting to an installed capacity of over 95 GW.

Given the success of the ITC and the value of solar, Yozwiak said, the real question “is whether it is worth causing the change after 2016, and havingdisruption at the scale we forecast it.”

Standard Solar CEO Tony Clifford agreed.

“There are going to be changes in 2017, likely very dramatic changes,”  Clifford said. “But we shouldn’t spend time arguing about how big this cliff will be. We should be working to make sure we don’t go over it.”